Nuclear Deterrence Between India And Pakistan Pdf
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Pakistan is one of nine states to possess nuclear weapons.
- International Security
- The India-Pakistan Conflict – Towards The Failure Of Nuclear Deterrence
- Deterrence (In)stability Between India and Pakistan
What will the spread of nuclear weapons do to the world? Horizontally, they have spread slowly across countries, and the pace is not likely to change much. Short-term candidates for the nuclear club are not very numerous. Counting India and Israel, membership grew to seven in the first 35 years of the nuclear age.
The tried-and-tested concept of MAD has ensured that. Since Pakistan tested its nuclear devices in May , it has not formally declared an official nuclear use doctrine. For example, issues like the possibility of nuclear first use and a unilateral moratorium against nuclear testing remain constant. Minimum credible deterrence and basing the nuclear posture on nondeployment and de-mated weapons are some of the disputed issues. Its diversification of delivery means also indicates a shift from massive retaliation to graduated response, coupled with changes in future targeting strategies. It is also expected that Pakistan might, in the near future, perceive a need to move away from the nondeployment of its weapons. Its evolving sea-based capabilities, as well as its short-range ballistic missiles SRBMs , may also necessitate a shift from centralized to delegated command and control.
In extremis, if both states adhere to the threats issued in their doctrines a Pakistan-supported militant attack on Indian soil could escalate into an all-out nuclear exchange. It is a development that has been met with great concern by many analysts for its detrimental impact on deterrence stability. Since the doctrines are believed to have become operational, at least four incidents occurred which could have sparked this cross-domain escalation spiral. And yet, crisis behaviour proved vastly different from what doctrine predicted. What does this say about deterrence stability on the subcontinent?
Don't have an account? This chapter examines how Pakistani strategic analysts think about the main components of nuclear deterrence: threat perceptions; force architecture and posture; conditions of nuclear use; targeting; testing; command and control; the relationship between nuclear and subnuclear conflict; missile defence; and measures to establish strategic stability. This is conducive to a significant degree of stability between the two countries. Oxford Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.
The India-Pakistan Conflict – Towards The Failure Of Nuclear Deterrence
Login Sitemap Contact. Recent events in South Asia have put all these into question. These are dismal times for peace. Since the tests of May and their overt nuclearization, Pakistan-India relations have visibly deteriorated. Crisis has followed crisis and nuclear weapons have played an increasingly prominent role.
Access options available:. Hagevty D i d India and Pakistan nearly fight a nuclear war in ? In a provocative article, Seymour M. Hersh claims that they did. It was far more frightening than the Cuban missile crisis. I was convinced that if a war started, it would be nuclear. William E.
With continued violence in Kashmir and a heightened threat of terrorist activity by Pakistan-based militant groups, tensions and concerns over a serious military confrontation between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan remain high. In August , following a deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops and paramilitary forces to the region, the Indian government moved to revoke Article of the Indian constitution, removing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. India-administered Kashmir remains under lockdown , with internet and phone services intermittently cutoff and thousands of people detained. Pakistan retaliated a day later with air strikes in Indian-administered Kashmir. Territorial disputes over the Kashmir region sparked two of the three major Indo-Pakistani wars in and , and a limited war in Although both countries have maintained a fragile cease-fire since , they regularly exchange fire across the contested border, known as the Line of Control. Both sides accuse the other of violating the cease-fire and claim to be shooting in response to attacks.
The India-Pakistan relationship is complex and choreographed with wars, protracted conflicts and active disputes. Although the presence of nuclear weapons has decreased the probability of an all-out conventional war, the frequency of minor conflicts and crises have increased manifold. India considers nuclear weapons a deterrent against nuclear strikes, whereas Pakistan assumes that these would deter a nuclear as well as a conventional war. The central argument of this book is that another military engagement between India and Pakistan, similar to one in February , exists with varying degrees of probability, thus challenging the efficacy of nuclear deterrence.
It seems that you're in Germany. We have a dedicated site for Germany. This book examines the theory and practice of nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan, two highly antagonistic South Asian neighbors who recently moved into their third decade of overt nuclear weaponization. It assesses the stability of Indo-Pakistani nuclear deterrence and argues that, while deterrence dampens the likelihood of escalation to conventional—and possibly nuclear—war, the chronically embittered relations between New Delhi and Islamabad mean that deterrence failure resulting in major warfare cannot be ruled out. Through an empirical examination of the effects of nuclear weapons during five crises between India and Pakistan since , as well as a discussion of the theoretical logic of Indo-Pakistani nuclear deterrence, the book offers suggestions for enhancing deterrence stability between these two countries.
Это что еще за чертовщина? - возмутился Джабба. - Сидите тихо, - приказал Фонтейн. Люди на экране вроде бы сидели в каком-то автобусе, а вокруг них повсюду тянулись провода. Включился звук, и послышался фоновой шум.
Deterrence (In)stability Between India and Pakistan
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